The Chief Health Officer has issued an Epidemic Thunderstorm Asthma Forecast of HIGH for East Gippsland on Saturday, December 7, 2024. Additionally, Northern Country and West & South Gippsland are under a Moderate Risk forecast. This means there is a heightened likelihood of a thunderstorm asthma event in the region, urging residents, especially those at risk, to be prepared.

What is Epidemic Thunderstorm Asthma?

Epidemic thunderstorm asthma occurs when a sudden surge of people experience severe asthma symptoms triggered by a unique combination of high pollen levels and specific thunderstorm conditions. These storms break pollen grains into smaller particles, making them easy to inhale, which can cause severe respiratory symptoms in those who are sensitive.

Understanding the Risk Forecast

“The unique combination of high pollen levels and severe thunderstorms can lead to a perfect storm for asthma triggers. This is why it’s essential to monitor forecasts and take precautions if you’re at risk,” explains Dr. Edwin Lampugnani from Melbourne Pollen.

The epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk forecasting system combines data on grass pollen levels and specific thunderstorm conditions known to trigger asthma events. Using a color-coded scale, the forecast categorizes risk levels as:

• Green (Low Risk): The elements necessary for an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event are not expected and an event is unlikely.
• Orange (Moderate Risk): One of the elements necessary for an event may be present (i.e. a high pollen forecast or a severe thunderstorm with strong winds) and there is a moderate chance of an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event occurring.
• Red (High Risk): Both high pollen forecast and severe thunderstorm(s) with strong winds are likely to be present increasing the risk of an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event occuring.

Tomorrow, East Gippsland faces High Risk, while Northern Country and West & South Gippsland are under a Moderate Risk. Most of the remaining state is categorized as Low Risk.

“While a high or moderate forecast doesn’t guarantee an event, it serves as a crucial tool for preparedness. It empowers individuals and health services to take preemptive action,” emphasizes Dr. Lampugnani.

What Should You Do on Days with Moderate Risk?

“Thunderstorm asthma can impact not only those with asthma but also individuals who may never have experienced respiratory issues before. Staying informed and having a plan is the best way to reduce risk,” advises Dr. Lampugnani.

Even at Moderate Risk, taking precautions can make a significant difference:

• Stay indoors during storms: Thunderstorms can trigger asthma by dispersing pollen particles into the air. Avoid exposure to storm winds.
• Carry your medication: Ensure you have a reliever inhaler (e.g., Ventolin) readily available and use it as prescribed.
• Follow your asthma action plan: If you have asthma, remind yourself of the steps to manage symptoms, including the four steps of asthma first aid.
• Set up alerts: Stay informed by downloading the VicEmergency app to receive updates for your area. The Melbourne Pollen App also syndicates Thunderstorm Asthma Forecasts on behalf of the Department of Health.

Why Is This Season Particularly Risky?

Grass pollen levels peak from October to December, driven by the flowering of grass—the primary culprit behind thunderstorm asthma in Victoria. Combined with thunderstorms, which can fragment pollen into particles small enough to reach deep inside our lungs, these conditions create an elevated risk for asthma and hay fever symptoms.

“This combination of seasonal grass pollen and storms can create challenging conditions for respiratory health. For individuals with asthma or hay fever, it’s critical to plan ahead and take precautions during this high-risk period,” explains Dr. Lampugnani.

The Victorian Government supports grass pollen monitoring at multiple sites across the state, including Melbourne, Geelong, and Ballarat. Data is shared with the public through the Melbourne Pollen Service.

More Resources

For more information on how to prepare for thunderstorm asthma and manage asthma symptoms, check out these trusted resources:

• Victorian Department of Health: https://www.health.vic.gov.au/environmental-health/epidemic-thunderstorm-asthma-risk-forecast.
• National Asthma Council Australia: https://www.nationalasthma.org.au
• Asthma Australia: https://www.asthma.org.au