The 2024 Victorian grass pollen season is looking a lot like last year’s. In 2023, Melbourne saw 28 high and extreme grass pollen days between October and December, which was a bit heavier than usual. This year, we're expecting a similar number of bad days for hay fever and asthma.

But there’s a catch – this prediction depends on whether we get above-median spring rainfall. If that happens, we’ll likely see a burst of grass growth toward the end of the season, which could make things rough for those with allergies. Right now though, the dry, warm weather through August has lowered soil moisture.

Let’s break down the current conditions. Victoria experienced a pretty dry winter, especially across the western two-thirds of the state. Central and eastern areas saw more typical or even above-average rainfall. On top of that, winter was warmer than usual, with Victoria setting a new record for the highest mean maximum temperature.

The warm and dry winter has had a noticeable impact on soil moisture levels, which are key for supporting grass growth. As shown in the first figure, large parts of the state's north and west have drier or much drier soil than usual, while the soils east of Melbourne are sitting at roughly average moisture levels.

Satellite images showing vegetation greenness in Victoria for September 2024 (left) and September 2023 (right). Image adpted from the Bureau of Meteorology.

How have these conditions affected Victoria’s grasslands, which are the source of much of our grass pollen? The second figure compares satellite images of vegetation greenness in in September 2024 (left) and September 2023 (right). The grasslands, mainly to the north and west of Melbourne, are less green this year, showing that grass growth has been slower than it was at this time last year.

Satellite images showing vegetation greenness in Victoria for September 2024 (left) and September 2023 (right).

Turning to the rainfall forecast, the final image shows there's a 60% chance of above-average rainfall around Melbourne and up to an 80% chance in northern Victoria through the end of the year. Warmer-than-usual temperatures are also likely across much of the state.

Map showing the chance of above average rainfall in Victoria between October and December this year. Image adapted from the Bureau of Meteorology.

So, what does all this mean? While the current dry and warm conditions suggest a pollen season that mirrors that of 2023, favorable weather, especially in October, could still drive grass growth and lead to a heavier season in November and December. If you have allergies, it’s smart to stay alert and take steps to protect your health as the season progresses.

How to Prepare

For those affected by hay fever or asthma, preparation is crucial. Stay informed by tracking daily pollen counts via the Melbourne Pollen App and adjust your plans on high pollen days. Make sure to consult with healthcare providers to have an action plan in place, especially if you suffer from asthma or allergies.

Where to Get Pollen Information

The Melbourne Pollen App is available on both the Apple and Google Play Store , offering real-time notifications about pollen levels. You can also follow the Melbourne Pollen team on X (formally Twitter) and Facebook for updates.